The study examined whether shutting down a larger power plant auch as the nuclear power plant Grafenrheinfeld could lead to bottlenecks in security of supply. It was considered possible in advance that the amounts of electricity needed to cover the energy needs in the annual balance sheet or at the time of maximum electricity consumption (annual peak load) could be missing. The study showed: Both are not the case. The power plant list of the Federal Network Agency (BNetzA) contained at the time of the study generation power plants with a secured capacity of 106 GW. Depending on the definition, the annual peak load in Germany was between 75 GW and 84 GW. In terms of the annual peak load, more than 20 GW of the power plants listed on the power plant list at the time of the study could be shut down.
Furthermore, the authors stated: Theoretically, security of supply can also be limited by regional network bottlenecks, which could hinder the supply of electricity to the place of consumption. The existing North-South electricity transport would be further aggravated by the shutdown of the Grafenrheinfeld nuclear power plant, but not so far that the security of supply in Bavaria would be jeopardized. This was agreed by the transmission system operators responsible for their guarantee and the BNetzA. The security of supply in Bavaria would thus be ensured even without new power plant construction. The developments of the required reserve power are regularly checked. If further tightening would show up, there are relatively quickly applicable emergency options, in particular limiting the export of electricity.
Arepo prepared the analyzes and made recommendations regarding the shutdown of the Grafenrheinfeld nuclear power plant.