The Theory of No Change (TONC) is an abstract analysis framework which can be used in case studies. The theory is used to determine which factors are responsible for the fact that a planned change does not occur or project goals are not achieved. The Theory of No Change thus puts the theoretical intervention strategy (Theory of Change) of a project or program in relation to reality. Why were the intended changes not achieved? What are the obstacles to change? Finally, the theory serves to show ways of overcoming the obstacles.

Dr. Wörlen developed The Theory of No Change as part of a project with the Global Environment Facility (GEF), in which she examined the impact logic of two energy efficiency programs. The theory was presented at the 2016 International Energy Evaluation Conference (IEPPEC).

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The Theory of No Change

Theory-based evaluation is the order of the day. However, many theory-based evaluations focus on programme logics rather than actual theories of change. Programme logics start …

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