Foreseeable effects of an earlier shutdown of Gundremmingen C on the security of energy supply in Bavaria

The short study examined whether a joint shutdown of the two remaining blocks of the Gundremmingen nuclear power plant in 2017, i.e. in addition to the shutdown of the block B also that of the block C, would have uncontrollable effects on the security of power supply. The study updated the findings of two preceding studies on (1) the shutdown of Grafenrheinfeld and (2) a complete nuclear phase-out in 2015. The security of supply was assessed based on the transmission system operators’ current account, the Federal Network Agency’s monitoring report, the ENTSO-E scenarios and the scenarios of the Pentalateral Forum. Relevant for assessing the security of supply was also the discussion of the separation of the German-Austrian electricity market.

In this study, the authors of Arepo contextualized the standard approach to assessing security of supply, the national current account, and made statements on network security based on this. At the same time, they presented alternative approaches to measuring security of supply and made recommendations for alternative measures to improve supply security. The study contains three fact sheets:

  • Factsheet 1 on the current account
  • Factsheet 2 on grid security in Southern Germany
  • Factsheet 3 on the “systemic relevance” of power plants