In the framework of this project, two case studies were undertaken for long-term energy efficiency programs, in order to deduct general cause-effect logic. One of the case studies dealt with market transformation for different energy efficient household appliances in Thailand and the other with the integration of renewable energies in the polish long-distance heating sector. In both cases, evaluations of internationally financed climate change mitigation projects were reviewed to analyze the dynamic of market transformation and climate change mitigation over a period of around 15 years. A third study summarizes the findings of this analysis and develops on this basis an abstract framework for analysis which is applied on the countries of the case studies. This analytical framework was published under the title “theory of no change”. It is generally applicable on the evaluation and planning of short-, mid- and long-term programs on climate change mitigation, including more fundamental energy efficiency investments, changes of practices and the field of renewable energy generation and other substitution processes. It is applied in on-going evaluations (GEF EO).